July 18, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Mischief Mogul | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Silver Samurai | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Shipsational | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Doin’ittherightway | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Stop the Spread | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Last Minute Mario | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Knightly Mischief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Tallis | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mystical Man | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | Bold Victory | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Group Hug | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Abdan | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Welshman | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | The Angry Man | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Theregoesmymiracle | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Burn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Charleston Strong | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Amano | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Partner’s Hope | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Complicate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mark This Down | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Islandman | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 8 | Honey Money | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breakfastatbonnies | 1.20 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Beautiful Karen | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Snicket | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Byhubbyhellomoney | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Canarsie Angel | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Left Leaning Lucy | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Athena Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Get the Candy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Big Time Lady | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Chasing Cara | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fractorzation | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Little Dutch Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Show Me the Honey | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 6 | Shesasuperfreak | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Misty Veil | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Hop | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High Fashion | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Family Time | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Puye Timing | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Suspended Campaign | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Poncho Song | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lil Stevie | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hot Rod Rumble | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Juggler | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Senbei | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cozzy’s Attitude | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Disengage | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gimmedamoney | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Bobby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Fortuity | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Break | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glory Road | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Malthael | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Free Enterprise | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Handy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Liveyourbeastlife | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Respect for All | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Matta | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Life On Top | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Summer to Remember | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | No Salt | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Equal Pay | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mezcal | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big City Momma | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | More Moonshine | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Perfect Grace | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Quick | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Venus Oyzo | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rhombique | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Point Wild | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pleasure Luck | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Awesome Debate | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Timely Tradition | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Roxy Girl | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Betsy Blue | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wailin Josie | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awillaway | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diva Banker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Goin’ Good | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Shop Girl | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mischiefful | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Farsighted | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Devine (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Honey Pants | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | What a Trick | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Wink | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Before You | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dearest Kitten | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Morning Cocktail | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shirley Greene | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shining Colors | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwood Flash | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Employees Only | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dam the Deficit | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mia Calia | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Decreed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.