July 18, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | New Rules | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Juana Hero | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Magna | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Angel’s Run | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Hold Queens | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rejoice an Be Glad | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Triple Scout | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sensible Myth | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stopshoppingamy | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Field Letters | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Primary Cause | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Rain | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gray Owl | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Piece of My Heart | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | O’Keeffe | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Lawyer | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Compelling Smile | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Karak | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Upbeat Melody | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Better Think Twice | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Power Through | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Storm’s Reflection | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nobel | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clyde’s Green Go | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Debenture | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kingdom’s Spirit | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Absolute Chaos | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Radiant Castle | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Earl | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morriston | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Hideaway | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Comiskey Park | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gemo Rain | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Givin Up None | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Paulette | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Hot Today | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Straight Up Smarty | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wanna Have Fun | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dance the Day Away | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Watchin the Wheels | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Present of Hero | 4.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fade Away | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Antrim’s Giant | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fleetway | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | And Won | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Half of Manhattan | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baroque | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Christian C | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ruffolo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Imagine Gold | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Locash | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girls Count | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valerie Valeski | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Missen the Point | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fiddlershotpleasur | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aka Lioness | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Couger | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Speak English | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Key | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Share My Moon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.