Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 17, 2021

July 17, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 War Smoke 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Neuro 3.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Sheriff Bianco 2.50 3.1 6-1
9 9 Martinez 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Giramonte 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 I’m Blaming You 12.00 4 7-1
4 4 Majestic Tiger 8.00 4 7-1
7 7 The Great Gazoo 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Freudian Fate 20.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Oliver’s Fortune 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Gonna Be Dancing 50.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Baby Yoda 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Repo Rocks 1.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Trash Talker 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Cause of Action 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Jake Rocks 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Christopher 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 The Great Dansky 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Love and Money 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Misspell 4.00 2.1 4-1
11 8 Miss Delicious 4.00 3.1 6-1
9 6 Third Draft 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Amalfi Princess 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 5 Magisterium (IRE) 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 7 Battle Bling 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 4 Seascape 20.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Trumpet Lilly 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bravo Regina 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Semble Juste (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Austrian 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Grape Nuts Warrior 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Great Workout 6.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Matty’s Express 6.00 4.2 8-1
7A 7 Perpetrate 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Cotton 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 The Last Ace 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 The Golden Door 10.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Simply 15.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Jumpster 8.00 SCRATCH
12A 12 Agent Creed 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Run for Boston 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Catch That Party 20.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Chattalot 1.80 1.3 3-1
2 2 Seal Beach 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Montauk Point 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Uninvited Guest 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Detroit City 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Carpe All Day 10.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Fromanothamutha 15.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Red Danger 20.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Street Fight 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Portfolio Company 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 4 Never Say Know (IRE) 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 James Aloysius 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Informal 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Ansel 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Commander Compton 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 9 Great Britain 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Boston Flagship 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 R Doc 30.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Rattle N Roll 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Chileno 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 K Club 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 7 Shekky Shebaz 3.00 2.2 4-1
1A 1 Happymac 3.00 2.8 5-1
12 10 Ghoul (BRZ) 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Duress 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Souper Dormy 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Battle Station 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Gear Jockey 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Chimney Rock 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Competitive Saint 10.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Guildsman (FR) 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Clench 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 The Sicarii 15.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Bronx Bomber 3.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Mount Travers 20.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 10 Mahaamel 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Beau Liam 3.00 2 4-1
7 6 Witsel 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Angkor 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Ten for Ten 8.00 4.4 8-1
11 9 Wudda U Think Now 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Mr Sippi 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 2 Newbomb 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 3 Striking Speed 30.00 7.9 15-1
6 5 Somebody 50.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Life Changer 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Crowded Trade 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sanford S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wit 1.60 1.9 4-1
2 2 Candy Landing 3.50 2.2 4-1
9 8 Headline Report 5.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Ottoman Empire 10.00 3 6-1
6 5 Maryland Brando 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Dance Code 12.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Due Vini 20.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Seize the Night 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Kavod 20.00 5 9-1
4 3 Trust Our Journey 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Catch the Smoke 50.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Lucago 50.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Diana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lemista (IRE) 2.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Althiqa (GB) 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Summer Romance (IRE) 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Harvey’s Lil Goil 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Pocket Square (GB) 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Magic Attitude (GB) 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 La Signare (FR) 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Vigilantes Way 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Askin for a Baskin 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 6 Ducale 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 3 Southern Flag 4.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Cool Quest 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Lemon Drop Road 6.00 4 8-1
6 5 Abaan 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Crump 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Deferred Taxes 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Laughing Boy 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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