July 17, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | War Smoke | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Neuro | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sheriff Bianco | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Martinez | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Giramonte | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Blaming You | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Tiger | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Great Gazoo | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freudian Fate | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Oliver’s Fortune | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gonna Be Dancing | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Baby Yoda | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Repo Rocks | 1.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trash Talker | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cause of Action | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jake Rocks | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Christopher | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Great Dansky | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Love and Money | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Misspell | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Miss Delicious | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Third Draft | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amalfi Princess | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Magisterium (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Battle Bling | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Seascape | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trumpet Lilly | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bravo Regina | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Austrian | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grape Nuts Warrior | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Great Workout | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Matty’s Express | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Perpetrate | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cotton | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Last Ace | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Golden Door | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Simply | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jumpster | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Agent Creed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Run for Boston | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Catch That Party | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Chattalot | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seal Beach | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Montauk Point | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Uninvited Guest | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Detroit City | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Carpe All Day | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fromanothamutha | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Danger | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Street Fight | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Portfolio Company | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Never Say Know (IRE) | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | James Aloysius | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Informal | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ansel | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Commander Compton | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Great Britain | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boston Flagship | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | R Doc | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rattle N Roll | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Chileno | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | K Club | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 7 | Shekky Shebaz | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Happymac | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duress | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Souper Dormy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Battle Station | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gear Jockey | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chimney Rock | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Competitive Saint | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guildsman (FR) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Clench | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | The Sicarii | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Bronx Bomber | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Mount Travers | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Mahaamel | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Liam | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Witsel | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Angkor | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ten for Ten | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wudda U Think Now | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr Sippi | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Newbomb | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Striking Speed | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Somebody | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Life Changer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Crowded Trade | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sanford S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wit | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Landing | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Headline Report | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ottoman Empire | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maryland Brando | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dance Code | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Due Vini | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Seize the Night | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kavod | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trust Our Journey | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catch the Smoke | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Lucago | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Diana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lemista (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Althiqa (GB) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Romance (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pocket Square (GB) | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Attitude (GB) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | La Signare (FR) | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vigilantes Way | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Askin for a Baskin | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ducale | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Southern Flag | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Quest | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lemon Drop Road | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Abaan | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crump | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Deferred Taxes | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Laughing Boy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.