July 17, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Convict Pike | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Majestic Day | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Poppy’s Boys | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dramatic Kitten | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Z U Soon | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Talis Park Grad | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Urbanite | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rachelgotstephen | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Isabellacannetella | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Raggedy Doll Peach | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lipliner | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Action Attack | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Stella | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Freedom Rose | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Belle | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Raison | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Swoonatra | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Bernadette | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Masterful Mistress | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wingspun | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Eminent Victor | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wonderstruck | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Hatoof S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Core Values | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Blessed | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Band Luzziann | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forever Boss | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spritz | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Postnup | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flown | 1.40 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mango Tree | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Galahad Kid | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Packed House | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chapel Barn | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Venetian Dream | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River Finn | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bora Bora | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Roar of the Lion | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Cocked | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Beast Mode | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Renegade Bob | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Arlington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Betwithbothhands | 30.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Another Mystery | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Captivating Moon | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bizzee Channel | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Two Emmys | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zulu Alpha | 1.20 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Background | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tut’s Revenge | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – American Derby
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fort Moultrie | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tango Tango Tango | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Clarestown | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Effect | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Accredit | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Hornet | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King of Miami | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Kabong | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bodenheimer | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | New Year Surprise | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shadizaar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Modesty S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Family Way | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curly Wurly | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pythoness | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bramble Queen | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Russian Mafia | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Breeze Rider | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Naval Laughter | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oh So Terrible | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Sixtyone | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tweety Show | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.