Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 16, 2021

July 16, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shashashakemeup 1.50 2.1 4-1
1A 1 Girolamo’s Attack 2.50 2.2 4-1
6A 6 Smooth B 2.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Mihos 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Gun It 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 T Loves a Fight 8.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Clear Humor 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Arms an Armor 4.00 2.4 4-1
8 7 Quick Return 1.80 2.9 5-1
4 4 Brew Pub 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Beau Brown 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Tamburro’s Sox 15.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Reunion Tour 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Far Away Look 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Giacosa 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 6 Classic Colors 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 5 Chocolate Cookie 1.80 2.3 4-1
3 3 Timeless Journey 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Light in the Sky 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Dixie Cannon 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Courageous Girl 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Flaming Rouge 2.00 2 4-1
1 1 Ballacolla 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 6 Angelou 2.50 2.7 5-1
8 7 Lisheen 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Now Yus Cant Leave 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Fortuna 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Endless Front 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Tekila 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Absolute Love 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Yes I’m Evil 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 6 Seeds of Time 3.50 2.9 5-1
5A 5 Violent Trick 4.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Annika Gold 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 7 Mongolian Humor 10.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Gringotts 12.00 7.2 14-1
6A 6 Viradia 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Mizzen Air 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Pecan Pattie 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kant Hurry Love 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Tough Street 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 November Rein 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Let Her Inspire U 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Classic Miss 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Saratoga Chrome 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Rigby 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Dufresne 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Amore Fire 20.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Succulent 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Curly Girl 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Trinity Titoli 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Miner’s Queen 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 4 Mused (GB) 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Mumbai 6.00 4 7-1
2 1 Too Sexy 3.50 4.3 8-1
11 8 American Goddess 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 7 Rivendell 4.50 5 9-1
8 5 Zia’s Song 12.00 7 13-1
9 6 Bay Jewel 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Amendment Nineteen 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Spin a Yarn 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Madam Maclean 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Air Cavalry 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Thief of Hearts 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spicy Marg 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Patty H 1.80 2.3 4-1
6 5 Easy to Bless 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Polished Gem 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 1 Kandy Ginger 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Malibu Luna 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Greatest Love 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Riding On a Winner 15.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Bayshore Foxes 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Forbidden Apple S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Value Proposition (GB) 2.50 3 6-1
7 6 Delaware (GB) 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Sacred Life (FR) 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Rinaldi 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Corelli 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Therapist 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Logical Myth 15.00 7.8 15-1
8 7 Sanctuary City 15.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Made You Look 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Flying Scotsman 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Baudi Moovan 3.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 Uncle’s Gem 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 U Should B Dancing 2.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Fancy Feline 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Kreesa La Wrote 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Raining Candy 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Candy Monet 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Isle Storm 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Strong Moment 30.00 6.8 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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