July 16, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dare to Hope | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ah Leah | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cookin Roses | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zip Attack Baby | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irina’s Hero | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cachaco | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chopper | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Symbolist | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Irish Tuff | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Skip the Smalltalk | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Ben | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Grapevine | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mama Lou | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Second Hand Attack | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ruler Daenerys | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Twelve Red Roses | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dolly’s Line | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nofansinthestands | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Glitterary | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Judy’s Way | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Union Park Gal (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Slime Queen | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Young Corbett | 12.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Easter Music | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Souper Highvoltage | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Croce d’Oro | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dom the Bomb | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeleys Ice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Oncewewerebrothers | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Crankshaft | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bells of Joy | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Away to Return | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All in a Dream | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maid of Honor | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Chess (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Serene | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Baseball Politics | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Richy | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Poquito Man | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cowboys Feather | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Violenza d’Oro | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Myuddermamasapaint | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Talktoeachother | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ringintheyear | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Halo Hunter | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Huey Attack | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Olson | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | First Masamune | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Diddley | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Can’t Say No | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dark Ninja | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Earl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ravens Reflection | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.