Sports from the Basement

Pimlico Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 11, 2021

July 11, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Doctor K 2.00 3 6-1
4 2 New York One 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sam and Sy 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 3 Dr. Rusty Raymond 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 5 Swing Your Sword 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Doobiedoobiedoobie 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Cooke Brothers 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Buff Hello 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Slaats 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Powerful Force 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mr. Mox 5.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Gallant Gold 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Casa Grande 15.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Bourbon Gal 3.00 2.7 5-1
10 8 Sweet Talking Girl 3.00 3 6-1
6 4 Alleria 2.50 3.3 6-1
8 6 Cold Hearted Cat 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 5 Bears Breeches 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 Bless and Honor 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 3 Maryland’s Miracle 15.00 5 10-1
3 1 Iam a Dancer 30.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Golden Lassie 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Tuff But Fair 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Itgot Grandma 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Blue Danube 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 Shaka Style 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Find Your Boaz 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Always Forgiven 1.60 3.5 7-1
5 5 Peppi the Hunter 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Johng 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Call Me Plucky 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Sue Loves Barbados 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Artistic Endeavor 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Benny Havens 6.00 4.8 9-1
12 10 Beacon Hill 4.50 5.4 10-1
6 5 Super E 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Fermat 12.00 6 11-1
10 9 Beltway Bob 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Speed Game 20.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Ratify 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Celtic Treasure 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ghost On a Mission 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Bobby Two Times 2.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Where’s the Ben’s 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Big Rinne 2.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Gottaway 6.00 3 6-1
5 4 Maru’s Raven 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Arbutus 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 What a Story 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Vanzzy 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Saratoga Jack 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 4 Gunnison 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 5 Missin the Big Dog 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 2 Ballagh Rocks 8.00 5.6 11-1
11 8 Hawkish 10.00 7.2 14-1
10 7 Just Whistle 15.00 8.4 16-1
8 6 Workin On a Dream 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 Clubman 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tappin Cat 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 My Friends Beer 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cannon’s Roar 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Premiere Choice 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Jackie A 1.60 2.5 5-1
5 5 Voltamour 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Lookatlittleferris 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Uncommon Valor 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Baltimore Bud 12.00 5.6 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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