Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 11, 2021

July 11, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fudge Brownie 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Princess Tine (FR) 3.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Quiet Drama 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 She’s Wandaful 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Bourbon Rebellion 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Road Game 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Storminside 1.00 2 4-1
2 2 Magi 20.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Southsider 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Nyoman 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Saturdays Hangover 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Pleasant Moon 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Driver Dan 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Hannity 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Shobiz Star 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Landofthepharaohs 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Ruffolo 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Upside Down 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 5 Niff 1.60 1.2 2-1
4 3 Simply Complicated 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 2 Miss Z 3.00 3 6-1
5 4 Angie’s Revrac 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Samarita 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bee Happy Attack 10.00 2 4-1
1 1 Last Spring 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Macho Classic 2.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Moon Flash 2.50 3 6-1
3 3 Half Cocked 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Clear to Close 4.50 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Moon of Love (IRE) 15.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Richies Great Girl 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 3 Sister Ruler 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Aiken to Be 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Feeling Mischief 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Senora Roma 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Miss Twenty 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Compelling Smile 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 City Drifter 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 D’fever 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Get Hammered 12.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Readthecliffnotes 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Arrival 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Richiesgotswagger 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 High Spirits 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 R H Smoakem 15.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Pistol Box 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Empty Holster 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 2 Overpraise 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 3 Mister Charming 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 4 Upham 6.00 5.8 11-1
8 6 Dramatic Kitten 4.50 6.1 12-1
3 3 River Finn 20.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Edison Fire 8.00 6.8 13-1
9 7 Talis Park Grad 12.00 9.9 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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