July 10, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tinderella | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Little Chick | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Way too Smarte | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vegan Goes Best | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Catnip Kitten | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Satiate | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kosher Cowboy | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Merlin’s Song | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baba Lou | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lost in Manhattan | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Hot Devil | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trappe Valley | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aggressivity | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Full of Heart | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cave Creek | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Laska | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Guerrerita | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Supreme Irene | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mi Enlace | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irina’s Hero | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gagoots | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Egomaniac | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Draft Capital | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zarmae | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Christmas Present | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Relmbunkus Syr | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Z U At the Races | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ioya Again | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Sign | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Iwillpersevere | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Land Mark Deal | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coming Up Aces | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tuff Attack | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Quarters | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mary of Bethany | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Caroline’s Story | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Daddy’s Boo | 1.20 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jolina | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rapid Transit | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | April’s Gem | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Naval Laughter | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cachaco | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lord Bolston | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maga Country | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fifty One Ninety | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Powerful Man | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Look Away | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rocket Ride | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Musical Theatre | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Honey Mug | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winning Quality | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Me too Mo | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I Juana Hero | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rank and File | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | U. S. Currency | 2.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nice and True | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.