Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 8, 2021

July 8, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Two Cookie Rule 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Beealea 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Coco Bravado 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Medal of Fact 1.60 3.4 6-1
2 2 Rip It Ryan 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Suprise Cat 8.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Night Things 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Rakeez 15.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Agave Kid 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 1 Semi Charmed Day 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 3 Dark Wood (IRE) 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 2 Tom’s Last General 3.50 4 8-1
3 3 Flashy Richie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Canary Islands 15.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Galahad Kid 1.80 1.8 3-1
6 6 High Hero 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Venetian Dream 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Willow Ridge 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Crankshaft 3.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Renegade Bob 6.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Magic Man’s Touch 10.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Easter Music 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 5 Seanshine 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Mongol Bull 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Will Knows 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Contraction 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Ripe Attack 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Boom Box 5.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zidikai 10.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Hoodwink 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 5 Godsgift 20.00 3.5 7-1
2 1 Antecedence 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Dulce Maria 30.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Backside Beauty 0.80 4.4 8-1
3 2 Ozette 4.00 5.7 11-1
8 6 Irish Halo 10.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tough to Tame 3.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Richie’s Palace 2.50 1.3 3-1
8 8 Mr Creed 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Degree of Risk 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Sport Pepper 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Magician Stone 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Russian Tank 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 No More Z U 10.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Go Yeowomen 4.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Antalya 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Sunday Scheming 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Sense of Self 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Lady Brexit 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Good Mongolia 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Northern Alliance 2.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Drinks On Me 10.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Clemson Tiger 6.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Eye of the Cat 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Coni’s Coup 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Admiral Returns 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Ol Grey Ghost 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Captain Fantastic 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 New Year Surprise 12.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Cowboys Feather 30.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Dream Keeper 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Rocket Hotshot 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Simple Logic 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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