Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Monday, July 5, 2021

July 5, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 No Time Alone 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Flip My Id 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Flattery’s Music 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Beautiful Banks 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 6 Uni Loves a Fight 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Our Tiny Dancer 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Amore Fire 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Extreme Force 0.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 Posse Can Disco 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Matty’s Marauder 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Litterbox 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Feast 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Magnificent Chrome 20.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Road to Success 0.80 1.4 3-1
5 4 Mo Heat 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 2 Bourbon Rising 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Gods Will 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Tiz the Journey 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Our Lucky Man 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Flintshire’s Rock 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Orb in the Tower 2.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Eight Weeks Long 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 5 Majestic Sky 1.40 3 6-1
3 2 Webb 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Wicked Karma 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Trisaetum 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Reunion Tour 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Baby Boss 1.80 2.2 4-1
1 1 Sweet Mia 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Miss Mi Mi 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Stunning Munnings 4.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Awesome Indra 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Mosienko 10.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Grand Couturier S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Sadler’s Joy 5.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Red Knight 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 3 Gufo 1.60 5.1 10-1
9 5 Shamrocket 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 6 Kinenos 20.00 5.9 11-1
7 4 Tide of the Sea 20.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Fantasioso (ARG) 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Epic Bromance 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Moon Over Miami 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Burning Bright 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Community Adjusted 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Windfall Profit 4.50 2.9 5-1
8 7 High Opinion 2.00 3 6-1
4 3 Creative Cairo 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Prairie Wings 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Sister Otoole 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Come Storming 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Princess Fawzia 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dwyer S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 First Captain 0.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Snow House 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Gershwin 2.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Ridin With Biden 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Civil War 30.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Proper Grammar 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Cartouche 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 4 Jades Gelly 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 High School Crush 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Dramatic Twist 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Day’s Humor 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sweeter 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Shannon’s Girl 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Train to Artemus 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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