Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 4, 2021

July 4, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Gone Glimmering 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 2 Anna’s Fast 1.40 2.5 5-1
5 4 She’s a Black Belt 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 True Castle 2.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Wicked Amber 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tariff War 1.80 1.3 2-1
6 6 Hombre 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Soar 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Win Worthy 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Hoopla 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 I Am the Law 4.50 4 8-1
4 4 L’Artiste 15.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 6 Ruthless Gal 10.00 3.8 7-1
13 7 Not a Trace 1.60 4 8-1
1 1 Khali Magic 8.00 4.4 8-1
11 5 Decreed 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 4 Little Red Button 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 3 Madame Rose 30.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Ms. Gucci Girl 50.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Happy Hill Lil 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Ethel’s Doctorate 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Prairie Tales 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tis a Pity 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Volpaia 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Lookin to Fly 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dunph 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Kumar 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Baby I’m Perfect 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Here Comes Doc 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Daddy Knows 1.60 3.4 6-1
1 1 American Lincoln 20.00 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Rhythm and Power 15.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 Alpine Queen 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Strong Point 1.80 3.8 7-1
2 2 Federalist Papers 1.60 SCRATCH
5 5 The Ginger Queen (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Mothers Day Jewel 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hard Won 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Exotic Cat 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Except Temptation 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Uncle Mo’s Cat 8.00 2.8 5-1
9 8 Raising Sand 6.00 3 6-1
4 3 Congrats for Glory 5.00 3.1 6-1
12 11 Run Smitty Run 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 4 Point of Humor 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Loaded Joe 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Rye Runner 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 2 Count Down 4.50 5.4 10-1
11 10 Moonshiningbright 20.00 7 13-1
7 6 Kentucky Knight 20.00 7.7 15-1
10 9 Beckenbauer 30.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Camouflaged Kisser 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7A 6 Gagliano 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 1 Magicallydelicious 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Bustin Bay 2.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Cause to Dream 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 Classy Sadie 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Love Me Tomorrow 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 9 Blue Paynt 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Feyre 30.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Take It Off 15.00 6.3 12-1
1A 1 Bustinmygroove 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Reux (GB) 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Maxwell Esquire 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Battle Station 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Pulsate 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Fiya 1.80 4.5 9-1
6 6 Yodel E. A. Who 1.60 SCRATCH
7 7 Holiday Stone 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 The Connector 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Manila S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Public Sector (GB) 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Straw Into Gold 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 6 It’s a Gamble 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Annex 3.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Original 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Hot Blooded 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Like the King 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Ridin With Biden 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – John A. Nerud S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Firenze Fire 0.60 3 6-1
3 3 American Power 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mind Control 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Wicked Trick 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Three Technique 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Top Seed 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Doubly Blessed 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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