July 4, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Gone Glimmering | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Anna’s Fast | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s a Black Belt | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | True Castle | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Amber | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tariff War | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hombre | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Soar | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Win Worthy | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hoopla | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Am the Law | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | L’Artiste | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 6 | Ruthless Gal | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Not a Trace | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Khali Magic | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Decreed | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Little Red Button | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ms. Gucci Girl | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Hill Lil | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ethel’s Doctorate | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Prairie Tales | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tis a Pity | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Volpaia | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lookin to Fly | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dunph | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kumar | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baby I’m Perfect | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here Comes Doc | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daddy Knows | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Lincoln | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Rhythm and Power | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alpine Queen | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Point | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Federalist Papers | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | The Ginger Queen (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mothers Day Jewel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hard Won | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Exotic Cat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Except Temptation | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Uncle Mo’s Cat | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Raising Sand | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Congrats for Glory | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Run Smitty Run | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Point of Humor | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Loaded Joe | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rye Runner | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Count Down | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Moonshiningbright | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kentucky Knight | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beckenbauer | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Camouflaged Kisser | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Gagliano | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Magicallydelicious | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bustin Bay | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cause to Dream | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Classy Sadie | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Love Me Tomorrow | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blue Paynt | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Feyre | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Take It Off | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Bustinmygroove | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Reux (GB) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maxwell Esquire | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Station | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pulsate | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fiya | 1.80 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yodel E. A. Who | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Holiday Stone | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | The Connector | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Manila S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Public Sector (GB) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Straw Into Gold | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | It’s a Gamble | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Annex | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Original | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hot Blooded | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Like the King | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ridin With Biden | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – John A. Nerud S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Firenze Fire | 0.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Power | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mind Control | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Trick | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Three Technique | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Top Seed | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Doubly Blessed | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.