July 3, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Let’s Cruise | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Khozie’s Ghost | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Cloud | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spun d’Etat | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Docs Seven | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gramercy | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Temper Tantrum | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tuff Attack | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Demand Ransom | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Putt Richie | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Givin Up None | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baroque | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Winningisfun | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maystart | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Big Star | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Varsity Flygirl | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tizaladybug | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Atlantic | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Richy | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Behavin Myself | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musical Theatre | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unembellished | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duckdevil | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rag Tag | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tea After Ballet | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gagoots | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dick the Bruiser | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frontier Charlie | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Lance | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Creek | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Town Agenda | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cosmic Treasure | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Violent Fight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Benelux | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Bariley | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sniper Kitten | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Frontana | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cammack | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Danville | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bulldog of Bergen | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Krewe Chief | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rio Seco | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dewy’s Hit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bel Bimbo | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tale of the Nile | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Ridge | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Liberal Lunacy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hannity | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saturdays Hangover | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cadet Captain | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hinton | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Diddley | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Yalikeanything | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cachaco | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chocolate Bunny | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Powerful Man | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Navy Pier | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King’s Story | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Irish Tuff | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ringintheyear | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | He’s So Wild | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hope for a Strike | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.