July 2, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grapevine | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Z U in My Dreams | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cesso | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | La Guerrerita | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz a Queen | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Gem | 4.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nicky Two Shoes | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Gate Crew | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Savage | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Wave’ndumoni | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Burl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Temper Tantrum | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kingsbury Dream | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Action Attack | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lion Love | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rank and File | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Launch Away | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Manhattan Legacy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Angelino | 2.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Way Home | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Andreas | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zanforce | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Call the Colonel | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Penalty Shot | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hinton | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Driver Dan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nofansinthestands | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Isabis | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girls Count | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aka Lioness | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruler Daenerys | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bird Key | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Supreme Irene | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Morriston | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Irish Lighted Road | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lastfortinofamily | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nip N Tuck | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Will Ya Win Sum | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Last Spring | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mango Tree | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Hero Alexandra | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Zandrea’s | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Brunella | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Simply Fast | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Eye On the Finish | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | White Lies | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Present of Hero | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Windy City Girl | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Princess Cora | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | April’s Gem | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fixico | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Its My Bag Baby | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cloud to Ground | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mister Charming | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Gray Blur | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Souper Highvoltage | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Change Direction | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic John’s | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Talis Park Grad | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Renegade Bob | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.