June 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Racarino | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cool Quest | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Partner’s Hope | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Atoka | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flint Ridge | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Robo Man | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Chaos | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sully’s Bro | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Istan Gold | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Engrave | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gunite | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Iconic Legacy | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dowagiac Chief | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rocket One | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Play Action Pass | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hilarious Affair | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rattle N Roll | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Call Me Midnight | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brigadier General | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sensei Lawrence | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Fifth Avenue Red | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eli | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Atta Boy Anthony | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Buckingham Prince | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Martini’nmoonshine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Call Me Gusto | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Rocking the Boat | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mount Travers | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Nifty | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Buttered Noodles | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hold Me Black | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Charge the Line | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Senor Jobim | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Madison’s Luna | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Impressed | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frolic More | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Donnels Creek | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Ocean Atlantique | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thirstforlife | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Great Escape (ARG) | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon War | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beaver Hat | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moliere | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trident Hit | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pit Boss | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Envoutante | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Letruska | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Point of Honor | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spice Is Nice | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vault | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Antoinette | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Kinetic Sky | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Pounce | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Calibrate | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cousin Larry | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tycoon | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bajan Rum | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Warrior in Chief | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Camp Hope | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cajun Moon | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Franz Josef | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sermononthemount | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – War Chant S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Royal Prince | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Helium | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Next | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Dyn O Mite | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Accredit | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Starrininmydreams | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | In Effect | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | El Kabong | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Debutante S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Halo | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Behave Virginia | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tizplenty | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ontheonesandtwos | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mollie Kate | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Catchusifyoucan | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classiness | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Compressed Energy | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cartel Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mi Estrella | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Double Thunder | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Run | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glacial | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vodka N Water | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lansdowne | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapped Off | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Knocker Down | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Whatstheconnection | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shesgotattitude | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whistlewhileyoumow | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rising Outlaw | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Set Piece (GB) | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Somelikeithotbrown | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Field Pass | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ride a Comet | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Spooky Channel | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Ghost | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hierarchy | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Sol | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | In Love (BRZ) | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Maxfield | 0.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Visitant | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Warrior’s Charge | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Dust | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | South Bend | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sprawl | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Necker Island | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chess Chief | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Empty Tomb | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Tepin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Adventuring | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tobys Heart | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Invincible Gal (GB) | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Town Avenger | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Barista | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | New Boss | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Arm Candy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Navratilova | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sylvia Q | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Bullseye Beauty | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Malloy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Fairchild | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Commanders Palace | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.