June 25, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Wicked Mad | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wild for Wycliff | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Amazing Rocket | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Buffalo Shuffle | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Abdan | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Brew Crew | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kolsch | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Maxim Moment | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Thunderstruck | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Aeronaut | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Son of Grace | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Motawaafeq | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Kattegat | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Take Charge Patti | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Satin Rose | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Good Penny | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cuzzywuzzy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | La Pulcinela | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Coinmaker | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Laura’s Angle | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | La Tourista | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moonshine Princess | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Devil’s Messenger | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Perfect Sense | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lautrec | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Minister | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Flattery | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lawlessness | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Light the Way | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Released | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tamanrassett | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She Love Me | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Gimmick | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trade Secret | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pipeline Girl | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ready for Charm | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cousin Rose | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | An Apple a Day | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Redrightreturning | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zmuda | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tactical Range | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sunday Grace | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eclipsed | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jalebi Baby | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Scarlet | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Stella Teresa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Freudian | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Start Class | 30.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eyes On Target | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Our Integrity | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Alexander Valley | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Centrifuge | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Carmel Crush | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sailor’s Return | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Tryst | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sky Temple | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nineeleventurbo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tariff War | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bourbon Treaty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Win Worthy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tonal Impact | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy Dan | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Excession | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Major Fed | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gigging | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quantum Leap | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Motagally | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ready to Answer | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Surly Furious | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tabor Hall | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sweet Pearl | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sundial | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kind Ways | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Misty Veil | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Novel Squall | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Three Tipsy Chix | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forever Boss | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Demodog | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peter’s Kitten | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vividly (GB) | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take Charge Lorin | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emily’s Oasis | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Turnstone | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reina Del Sol | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Look Me Over | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sunny Isle Beach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Go Big Green | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Seaside Retreat | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | We the Clouds | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two Sixtyone | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sa Foradada | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Answer In | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Coltonator | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scilly Cay | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | P R Radio Star | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shoplifted | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Full Authority | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Restoring Hope | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Verb | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Night Time | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lykan | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Art Collector | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bango | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strike Power | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Long Range Toddy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aloha West | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Calling | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Relentless Dancer | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Home Base | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Gypsy Touch | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flash Magic | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sparkle of Hope | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Front Street | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Missy | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Perhaps | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Liberty Isle | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chione | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Closet Shopper | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Town Beauty | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Easyonmyeyes | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Intent | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | The Girls | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | South Georgia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Temper Time | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Candy Anne | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.