Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 24, 2021

June 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Tia Flor 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Our Musical Moment 1.20 2.9 5-1
1 1 Parking Ticket 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Stellar Stiletto 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Fleeta Belle 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Marcie’s Candy 8.00 5 10-1
2 2 Over the Blues 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Potra Liza 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bizzy Echo 3.50 2 4-1
8 8 Mending 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Spitz 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Hot Anna 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Deemed Essential 4.50 5.3 10-1
11 11 Toccata 8.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Twentytwenty Hoax 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Joy Unbridled 15.00 8 15-1
7 7 Dorota 12.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 She’s So Cali 15.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Ain’t She Dahrlin 15.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Absam 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Mud Pie 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Tulfarris (GB) 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Courageously 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Actuary (GB) 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Cavalry Charge 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 La La Land (IRE) 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Bakwena 8.00 5 10-1
6 6 El Ahijado 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Excession 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hennys Crazy Train 3.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Connie K 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Fortuna Adiuvat 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Super Ready 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sweet Queen Bee 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Bourbina 4.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 She’sskysthelimit 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Excelerita 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Cryo 1.40 1.6 3-1
9 8 Rebopper 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Hanks 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Road Bible 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Hornswoggle 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Eye Black 12.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Junesandra 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 7 Spheroid 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Bamalama 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Country Captain 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Strong Odor 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Woke Up to Aces 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 5 Nightlife 5.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Miss Mamba 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 My Sweet Kat 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Breonna 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Artistic Jewler 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Chakra 15.00 6.6 13-1
9 8 Double Dare You 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Signify 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Skinny Dip 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Reagan’s Edge 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Sterling Miss 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Regal Retort 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Ready for Change 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Lady Anna 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Take Charge Erica 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 5 Jungle Juice (IRE) 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Carribean Caper 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mulsanne (IRE) 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Texas Shuffle 2.50 2.2 4-1
10 10 Dancefortheempire 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Elle Est Forte 4.00 4 8-1
1 1 My Sweet Story 10.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Salit 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Bella Conchita 15.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 My Pharoah Lady 20.00 9.8 18-1
11 11 Naked On the Beach 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Flippant 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tayet 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Silky Warrior (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lady de Peron (GB) 15.00 10 19-1
5 5 Mscovertoperation 15.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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