June 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Tia Flor | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Musical Moment | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parking Ticket | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stellar Stiletto | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fleeta Belle | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marcie’s Candy | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Over the Blues | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Potra Liza | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bizzy Echo | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mending | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spitz | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Anna | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Deemed Essential | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Toccata | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Joy Unbridled | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dorota | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s So Cali | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Absam | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mud Pie | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tulfarris (GB) | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Courageously | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Actuary (GB) | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cavalry Charge | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | La La Land (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bakwena | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Excession | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hennys Crazy Train | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Connie K | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Super Ready | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Queen Bee | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbina | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’sskysthelimit | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Excelerita | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Cryo | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rebopper | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hanks | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Road Bible | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hornswoggle | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eye Black | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Junesandra | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Spheroid | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bamalama | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Country Captain | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Strong Odor | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Woke Up to Aces | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nightlife | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Mamba | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Sweet Kat | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breonna | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Artistic Jewler | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chakra | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Double Dare You | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Signify | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Skinny Dip | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Reagan’s Edge | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sterling Miss | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Retort | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready for Change | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lady Anna | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Take Charge Erica | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carribean Caper | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Texas Shuffle | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dancefortheempire | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elle Est Forte | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Sweet Story | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Salit | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Conchita | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Pharoah Lady | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Naked On the Beach | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Flippant | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tayet | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lady de Peron (GB) | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mscovertoperation | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.