June 18, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Flattery | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Poirier | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Niangua | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Peterkin | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Banyan | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sonic Burn | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Hazy Command | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speedometer | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretty Birdie | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manasota Sunset | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Penny Saver | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Verylittlecents | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Farm Girl | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giddy Up Zoey | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Our Lady Nelson | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Seize the Treasure | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Slim Slow Slider | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Skeptical | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Tempo Madness | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Gingrich | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Creative Kid | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tokamak | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Derivative | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reddington | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Embrace | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Trebbiano | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | He Is Ready | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zip It Scotty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Combustion | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Almashriq | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hombrazo | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mobster Gun | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Catholic Guilt | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glory Road | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cancellara | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Exemplar | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Time for Trouble | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jack’s Advantage | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bucky | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pickford | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chicory Blue | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Earnednevergiven | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She Love Me | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lazy Summer Day | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Time for Glory | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sequaya | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beautiful Bella | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bia Bolt Runner | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seven Kingdoms | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tootsie | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flyta | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mayapretty | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Colonelsdarktemper | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hop Kat | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Leader of Men | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eskenforit | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shortlist | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Olympic Romp | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Intrepid Heart | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Treasure Trove | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sonneman | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enforceable | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mailman Money | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Core Beliefs | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Mesa | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | My Sixth Sense | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Finnick the Fierce | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Final Jeopardy | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Code Runner | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | King Abner | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | News Break | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Buy Me Candy | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cibolian | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Huge Bigly | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curly Wurly | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honor Hop | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Grey Streak | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | Hellorhighwater | 10.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sursum Corda | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Decision Maker | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | English Challenge | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.