Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 17, 2021

June 17, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Brimage 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Jamaican Traffic 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Why Behave 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Diva Dixie 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Bodacious Baby 4.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Greedy Algorithm 6.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cinnabunny 1.60 1.4 3-1
3 3 Rising Seas 1.80 2.8 5-1
5 5 Ain’t No Elmers 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Headland 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Cofactor 6.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Santa Elena 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Townplace 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Stepper 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mrs. Barbara 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Eyeofthebeholder 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Gillian Elizabeth 8.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Cailin Diana 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Royal County 12.00 7 13-1
10 10 U So Money Baby 12.00 9 17-1
11 11 Shanghai Shamrock 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Giddy Up Zoey 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Champagne Camie 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Farm Girl 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Manasota Sunset 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Verylittlecents 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Storm Sequence 20.00 12.7 24-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Flat Lucky 1.20 2.1 4-1
7 4 Rock On Kitten 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 5 Stay Home 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 State Treasurer 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Red Blue and True 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Oro de Tejano 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Twobirdsonestone 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Distorted Ransom 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jersey Lillie 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Double Dare You 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Dianna’s Jet 3.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 Sense You Left 5.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Ancient Brown 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Until Now 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Louemma 12.00 7 13-1
9 8 Empress Luciana 15.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Posh Princess 15.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Sapphire Royalty 15.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Born Great 1.80 1.3 3-1
6 6 Chimney Rock 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Smart Remark 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Royal Daaher 4.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Angaston 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bybee 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Williston Way 15.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Matt’s Honey 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Champagne Affair 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Its Cold in Dehere 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Spun Eazy 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Jennemily 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sweet Willemina 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Kimberley Dream 8.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Runway Dreamer 2.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Whimsical Muse 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Savvy Shipman 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Mad Grace 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Our Closure 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Dutch Treat 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Ginormous 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Skyvalue 30.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Hollywood Hoopla 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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