Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 13, 2021

June 13, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Woke Up to Aces 1.40 1.9 4-1
3 3 Black Kat Taps 1.60 2 4-1
4 4 Coal Shaft 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 My Girl Lexi 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Her Giant 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Shelley’s Gem 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Six Pack 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Tenth of Gold 2.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Runpat 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 My Miracle Man 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Thing 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Sprinklehead 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Tall Timber 10.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zippy Baby 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Code Duello 3.50 1.9 3-1
3A 3 Blue Cat 3.50 2.3 4-1
7A 7 Optimus Kat 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Military Bearing 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Westward Look 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Ballinonabudjet 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Knopfler 8.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Thief of Hearts 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Nurturing 4.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Anna’s Moonlight 4.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Polyester Bride 4.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Laura’s Angle 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 To Sing My Song 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Leia Organa 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Whiskey Blue 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Purrfect Love 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chicken Hawk 5.00 1.9 4-1
10 9 Rye Humor 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 8 Somes Sound 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Cornbread Hill 5.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Marsac 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Released 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Digital Star 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Rivers of Lite 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Magic Carpet 15.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Clearly Mad 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 National Road 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 American Diamond 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Boss Is a Pal 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Complicate 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 In Effect 5.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Borkan 4.50 4.2 8-1
11 10 Pure Courage 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Bugler 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 My Favorite Uncle 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hanks 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spheroid 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Tiz Life 30.00 11.2 21-1
9 9 Wing Commander 30.00 11.3 21-1
8 8 Cochise 30.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Longpants Required 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Puye Timing 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Lulumaru 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 High Fashion 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Favorite Sin 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Gigi B. 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Too Pretty 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Matt’s Honey 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Colonel Bowman 5.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Macron 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Santa Cruiser 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Therideofalifetime 5.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Eucharist 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Bayou Gem 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Angkor 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Pico d’Oro 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Sneeky Diversion 10.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Mount Athos 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Surly Furious 30.00 9.5 18-1
12 12 Wellman 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Festive Star (GB) 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Dominga 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Joy Epifora (ARG) 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Sister Hanan 2.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 On the Town 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Final Cut 15.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Frond 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Goodbye Earl 30.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 There Goes Harvard 2.50 1.3 3-1
7 7 Group Hug 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Surveillance 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Boldish 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Business Model 10.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Laughing Boy 12.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Mystical Man 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Reward Night 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Saqeel 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Kennedy’s Beau 30.00 7.9 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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