June 13, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Woke Up to Aces | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Black Kat Taps | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coal Shaft | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Girl Lexi | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Her Giant | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shelley’s Gem | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Six Pack | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tenth of Gold | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Runpat | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Miracle Man | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thing | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sprinklehead | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tall Timber | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zippy Baby | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Code Duello | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Blue Cat | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Optimus Kat | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Military Bearing | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Westward Look | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ballinonabudjet | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Knopfler | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Thief of Hearts | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nurturing | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Anna’s Moonlight | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Polyester Bride | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laura’s Angle | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | To Sing My Song | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Leia Organa | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskey Blue | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Purrfect Love | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chicken Hawk | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rye Humor | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Somes Sound | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cornbread Hill | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marsac | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Released | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Digital Star | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rivers of Lite | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magic Carpet | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Clearly Mad | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | National Road | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Diamond | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boss Is a Pal | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Complicate | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | In Effect | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Borkan | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Pure Courage | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bugler | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Favorite Uncle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hanks | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Spheroid | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Life | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wing Commander | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cochise | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Longpants Required | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Puye Timing | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lulumaru | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High Fashion | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Favorite Sin | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gigi B. | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Too Pretty | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Matt’s Honey | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Colonel Bowman | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Macron | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Santa Cruiser | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Therideofalifetime | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eucharist | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bayou Gem | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Angkor | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pico d’Oro | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sneeky Diversion | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mount Athos | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Surly Furious | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Wellman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Festive Star (GB) | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dominga | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sister Hanan | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | On the Town | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Final Cut | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frond | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Goodbye Earl | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | There Goes Harvard | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Group Hug | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surveillance | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Boldish | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Business Model | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Laughing Boy | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mystical Man | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Reward Night | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Saqeel | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kennedy’s Beau | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.