Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 12, 2021

June 12, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Cheyenne Wind 1.40 1.3 2-1
3 3 Romancer 1.80 1.9 4-1
4 4 Climb and Maintain 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Willie Has Hart 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Come Alone 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 1 Lt. Finn 15.00 5.4 10-1
2A 2 Liveryman 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Sponsored 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 3 Espionage 4.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Steely Danza 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Title Shot 4.50 2.7 5-1
7 6 Are You Happy 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Mega Charlie 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Maxim Moment 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Something Natural 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Bodemeister Wind 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Major Attraction 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Runnin’ Ray 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Language Barrier 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 See the Pyramids 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Toobadsosad 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Bonkers 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Flauto 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 6 Priddis 5.00 2.9 5-1
10 9 Twirling Patti 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Anthropology 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Legendary Gift 8.00 6 11-1
9 8 Skybox 10.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Satin Rose 10.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Pearl Girl 10.00 7.4 14-1
3 2 Coinmaker 12.00 9 17-1
11 11 Forever Mesa 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Speed Zone 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Keep Your Distance 1.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 Gianna’s Gift 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 All Fact 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Erv’s Wench 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Lady McKenzie 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Rahway 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Itsallaboutmememe 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Absolute Love 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Centerfold Angel 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Edith 1.80 1.4 3-1
6 6 Goin’ Good 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Illegal Smile (IRE) 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Mused (GB) 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Big Time 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Connie K 20.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Miss Twenty 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Amalfi Princess 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Time Leverage 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Ducale 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Pledgeofallegiance 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Sams Time 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Preseli’s Tale 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Global Appeal 8.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Fan Club 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Out Work’n 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Jennings 12.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Royal Tryst 15.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Cool Comedian 15.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 My Miracle Man 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Looting 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Tonal Impact 20.00 11.6 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Joyful Cadence 2.50 2 4-1
7 7 Sianara 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Portilla 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Code Name Kate 10.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Lady Frosted 10.00 5 9-1
11 11 Malloy 12.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Platinum Sky 15.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Fabricate 15.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Spun d’Etat 20.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Founder’s Day 15.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Coppelia 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Altered Shot 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) 1.20 1.6 3-1
3 3 Hendy Woods 6.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 She’sonthewarpath 8.00 4 7-1
1 1 Mintd (IRE) 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Tuned (GB) 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Lashara (GB) 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Vezpa (BRZ) 30.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Flash n’ Dance 30.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Dominga 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Crystal Ball 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Sister Hanan 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Winter Pool 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Handy 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Southern Passage 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Warrior in Chief 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Mr. Tip 5.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Katzarelli 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Greener Pastures 10.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Smith’s Point 2.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Kizzy B 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Bold Tactics 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Semble Juste (IRE) 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Lenni Be Lucky 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Second Row Center 10.00 4.4 8-1
1A 1 Lemon’s Medaglia 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Incessant 20.00 8.9 17-1
5A 5 Tapit’s Ruby 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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