Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 11, 2021

June 11, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Count Your Pennies 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Musk 4.00 2 4-1
2A 2 Strikeitortapit 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 5 Master of War 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Saving Mama 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Orphan Hallie 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Future Vision 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Stud Puppy 12.00 8.8 17-1
4A 4 Toe Tappin Luke 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Let’s Be Clear 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 3 Take the Backroads 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 5 Action Potential 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 2 Sax 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Grandma B 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Bhoma 1.40 SCRATCH
7 7 Tranquil Times 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gray Attempt 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Spycraft 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Souper Dormy 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Bad Beat Brian 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Verb 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Strike Me Down 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Lost in Limbo 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Best of Greeley 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Madison’s Luna 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Woodline 4.50 3.6 7-1
8 7 Tejano Twist 3.50 3.6 7-1
3 2 Curly Tail 4.50 4 8-1
2 1 Royal Connection 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 8 Candy Landing 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Happyize 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Suburban Court 10.00 6 11-1
4 3 Heffner 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 5 Knocker Down 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Big Redwhiteblue 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Malpractice Meuser (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Americaredwhiteblu 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Perfect Cut 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Eastside Cool 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Ultimate 4.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Sir Giannis 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Manitowish 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Flags Up 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Two Worlds 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Media Blitz 1.40 2.4 4-1
4 4 Glynn County 2.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Attorney Tim 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Job Security 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Botswana 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 American Tattoo (ARG) 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Artemus Eagle 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Beachwalker 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Toma Todo 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Bold Minister 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Good Juju 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 A. K. Safari 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Fort Knox 12.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Parrot Head 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Striking a Pose 10.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Claytnthelionheart 3.50 2.9 5-1
6 4 Friar’s Road 5.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Happy American 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 5 Dack Janiel’s 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 2 Harvard 10.00 4.5 9-1
8 6 Incorrigible 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Amani’s Eagle 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gigging 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 On a Spree 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Tizzarunner 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Overzealous 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Ransack 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Fra Mauro 10.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Clear for Action 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Kurilov (CHI) 12.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Stock Deal 15.00 8 15-1
9 9 Jungle Fighter 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Money for Mischief 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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