June 11, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Count Your Pennies | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musk | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Strikeitortapit | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Master of War | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saving Mama | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Orphan Hallie | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Future Vision | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Stud Puppy | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Toe Tappin Luke | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Let’s Be Clear | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Take the Backroads | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Action Potential | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sax | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Grandma B | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bhoma | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tranquil Times | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gray Attempt | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spycraft | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Souper Dormy | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Beat Brian | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Verb | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strike Me Down | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lost in Limbo | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Best of Greeley | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Madison’s Luna | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Woodline | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tejano Twist | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Curly Tail | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Royal Connection | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Candy Landing | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Happyize | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Suburban Court | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heffner | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Knocker Down | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Redwhiteblue | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Malpractice Meuser (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Americaredwhiteblu | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Cut | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eastside Cool | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ultimate | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Giannis | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Manitowish | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flags Up | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Two Worlds | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Media Blitz | 1.40 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Glynn County | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Attorney Tim | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Job Security | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Botswana | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Artemus Eagle | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beachwalker | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toma Todo | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Minister | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Juju | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A. K. Safari | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Knox | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Parrot Head | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Striking a Pose | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Claytnthelionheart | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Friar’s Road | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Happy American | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dack Janiel’s | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Harvard | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Incorrigible | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amani’s Eagle | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gigging | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | On a Spree | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizzarunner | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Overzealous | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ransack | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fra Mauro | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clear for Action | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stock Deal | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jungle Fighter | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Money for Mischief | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.