June 6, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Cecile’s Chapter | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dramatizer | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sweet Queen Bee | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rose’s Cause | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunny Isle Beach | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess d’Oro | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seaward | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Voice | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Skyvalue | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Singsong Bird | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She Wants More | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bow Maker | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bonnet | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gem Key | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My My Munny | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Tourista | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gran Chemin | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Benedictinesisters | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peyton’s College | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rosenquist | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Island Boy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Awesummer | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Congratzi | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | He’s Pretty Lucky | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Buckets of Rain | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Marvelousmoondance | 12.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | National Road | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Command Central | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Alpha Predator | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Complicate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Spheroid | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Niangua | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beocca | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Money | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dogwoods Cosby | 20.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rupp N Ready | 20.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Big Beautiful Wall | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruler of the Nile | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Luck of the Draw | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Frolic More | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Seven | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pepper Pike | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Thunder Buggy | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big On Broadway | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sense You Left | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Escape Fund | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ready N Waiting | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Protonico | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flyta | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbina | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Scarlet Fusion | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Who Took the Money | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Last Samurai | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nathan Detroit | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bryce Canyon | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Democracy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hard Rye Guy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Wentru | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Accredit | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Notary | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Belafonte | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swingin Friar | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Grey Streak | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13A | 11 | Glory Road | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gun It | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Necker Island | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Taishan | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Relentless Dancer | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Savvy | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bear Alley | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pit Boss | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Oak Hill | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prodigious Bay | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Restoring Hope | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Beaver Hat | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mademoiselle Nova | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cerulean | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | High Fair | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Look Me Over | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lisboa | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pure Silk | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maybe Later | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stormin Hot | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Salino | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Store | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Force of Nature | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fayette Blue | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ms Temptation | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Su Say Sashie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Love in the Air | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Blue Oyster | 50.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.