Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 5, 2021

June 5, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lemon and Diem 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mahomes Money 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Southside Swig 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 West Warpath 4.50 3 6-1
1 1 Hooperdrivesthboat 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Highest Mandate 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Kickin’ Kirby 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vasariano 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Hoistthemainsail 2.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Double Tough Tiger 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Man On the Moon 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Tiz Light the Way 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Tamanrassett 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Conquest Rainycity 5.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 El Kabong 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Win Worthy 3.50 1.8 3-1
10 9 Pine Knoll 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 8 Mr. Slate 10.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Cool Rags 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Metolius 15.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Dominar 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tiger Shark 50.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Captain Hank 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Rocking the Boat 1.40 1.9 4-1
2 2 Nifty 3.50 3 6-1
4 3 Donnels Creek 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Buttered Noodles 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Colonel Klink 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 D’ Rapper 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cool Bobby 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 He’smyhoneybadger 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 5 Tune In 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Savoy 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Ekati’s Verve 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Franz Josef 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dolder Grand 1.60 1.3 3-1
5 5 Performing Arts 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Awakened 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Private Network 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Derby House 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Mark This Down 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Loot the Moon 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Holdtheflight 20.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 American Union 30.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Magicalmysterytour 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Saracosa 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 5 New Roo 4.50 1.9 4-1
5 4 Powder River 4.50 2 4-1
8 7 Movie Moxy 3.50 2 4-1
3 2 Recoded 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Singita Dreams 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Compelling Smile 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Sweet Pearl 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Magic Quest 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Lil Town Sis 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Liberty Isle 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Chastain 5.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Front Street 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 First Date 12.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Thanozapper 10.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Spitz 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Notreallynotreally 20.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 In a Dream 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 5 Social Dilemma 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Alydiva 4.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Office Party 5.00 4 8-1
8 4 Gote Go 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Tabor Hall 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Spritz 12.00 SCRATCH
5A 5 Treasure Lane 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Go Big Green 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Core Values 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Malloy 3.00 SCRATCH
11A 11 High Fashion 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 My Man Flintstone 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 On Your Mark 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Samurai Prince 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Edge to Edge 6.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Air Show 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Kadri 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Tkotchke 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Skyro 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Top Gunner 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Cold as Hell 15.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 He’s a Babe 15.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Mighty Beau Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Totally Boss 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 2 Carotari 4.00 2 4-1
7 5 Classy John 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Just Might 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 4 High Crime 10.00 6.1 12-1
4 3 Johnny Unleashed 12.00 7 13-1
9 6 Elusive Mischief 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Smart Remark 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 The Connector 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Verb 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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