June 5, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lemon and Diem | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mahomes Money | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southside Swig | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | West Warpath | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Highest Mandate | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kickin’ Kirby | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vasariano | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hoistthemainsail | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Double Tough Tiger | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Man On the Moon | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Light the Way | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tamanrassett | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Rainycity | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Kabong | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Win Worthy | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pine Knoll | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Slate | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cool Rags | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Metolius | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dominar | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiger Shark | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Captain Hank | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Rocking the Boat | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nifty | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Donnels Creek | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Buttered Noodles | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Klink | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | D’ Rapper | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cool Bobby | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’smyhoneybadger | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tune In | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Savoy | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ekati’s Verve | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Franz Josef | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dolder Grand | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Performing Arts | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awakened | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Private Network | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Derby House | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mark This Down | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Loot the Moon | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Holdtheflight | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Union | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magicalmysterytour | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Saracosa | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | New Roo | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Powder River | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Movie Moxy | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Recoded | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Singita Dreams | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Compelling Smile | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Pearl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Magic Quest | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lil Town Sis | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Liberty Isle | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chastain | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Front Street | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | First Date | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Thanozapper | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spitz | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Notreallynotreally | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | In a Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Social Dilemma | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alydiva | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Office Party | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Gote Go | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tabor Hall | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spritz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Treasure Lane | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Go Big Green | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Core Values | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Malloy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | High Fashion | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | My Man Flintstone | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Samurai Prince | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Edge to Edge | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Air Show | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kadri | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tkotchke | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Skyro | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Top Gunner | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cold as Hell | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | He’s a Babe | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Mighty Beau Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Totally Boss | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carotari | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Classy John | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Just Might | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | High Crime | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Johnny Unleashed | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Elusive Mischief | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smart Remark | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The Connector | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Verb | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.