Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 3, 2021

June 3, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maximum Risk 2.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 Sol Del Sur 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Dejohn 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Mr. Thunderstruck 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Enraged 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Eagle Cap 8.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cavatina 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Flash of Promise 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Buffalo Shuffle 2.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Pilot Prince 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Elvirus 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bold Adventure 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Saving Mama 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Morethansoultitle 15.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Take Charge d’Oro 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Wagon Boss 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Charlie’sarchangel 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Chicory Blue 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lastchanceatglory 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Kadesh 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Kurilov (CHI) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Liberty Belle 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Pictorial 3.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Bethy 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 1 Holdontoyourtiara 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 5 Menzel 12.00 6.6 13-1
7 4 Emmyrates 10.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Simply Beguiled 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Tiger Jo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 4 Palace Avenger 2.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Elle Z 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 2 Yes It’s Ginger 5.00 5.6 11-1
7 3 Ambassador Luna 8.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Amazima 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dixieincandyland 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Karak 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Dontletsweetfoolya 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Catch a Bid 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Inthemidstofbiz 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Surveillance 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Maximus Aurelius 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Extreme 2.50 3.3 6-1
10 9 Carmel Crush 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Rising Empire 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Continuation 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Racarino 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Contractor Bill 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Mo More 15.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Motawaafeq 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Liberty M D 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Graysonsmacho Gal 5.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Distorted Verve 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Stop Shoppin Tammy 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Bow Bow Girl 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Break Curfew 3.50 4 7-1
5 4 Ivyetsu 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Len Lo Lady 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Convection 4.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Stage Left 2.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Ready to Answer 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Loopallu 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Oncoming Train 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Lock Up 12.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Chasin Charlie 30.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Inhalation (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Wora 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Unitedandresolute 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Nicky Two Shoes 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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