June 3, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maximum Risk | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sol Del Sur | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dejohn | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Thunderstruck | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Enraged | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eagle Cap | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cavatina | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flash of Promise | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Buffalo Shuffle | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pilot Prince | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elvirus | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Adventure | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saving Mama | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Morethansoultitle | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Take Charge d’Oro | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wagon Boss | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charlie’sarchangel | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chicory Blue | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lastchanceatglory | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kadesh | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Liberty Belle | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pictorial | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Bethy | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Holdontoyourtiara | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Menzel | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Emmyrates | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simply Beguiled | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tiger Jo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Palace Avenger | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elle Z | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Yes It’s Ginger | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Ambassador Luna | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amazima | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dixieincandyland | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Karak | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dontletsweetfoolya | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Catch a Bid | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Inthemidstofbiz | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Surveillance | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maximus Aurelius | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Extreme | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Carmel Crush | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rising Empire | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Continuation | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Racarino | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Contractor Bill | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo More | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Motawaafeq | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Liberty M D | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Distorted Verve | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bow Bow Girl | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Break Curfew | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ivyetsu | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Len Lo Lady | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Convection | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Stage Left | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ready to Answer | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loopallu | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oncoming Train | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lock Up | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chasin Charlie | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inhalation (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Wora | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Unitedandresolute | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Nicky Two Shoes | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.