May 31, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Baja Fog | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promptly Done | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jamaican Traffic | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Baytown Lyla | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Baytown Valleygirl | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Classiness | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Diva Dixie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cabot | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | State Treasurer | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ace Destroyer | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Venue | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Figure It Out | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Luna Fortis | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bye Bye Bertie | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Resurrection Road | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Darlene Strong | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Willemina | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Patti | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hennys Crazy Train | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Workout | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | La Pulcinela | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sea Song | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Deal | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Plants and Birds | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Graceful Choice | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jazzy Lady | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Time for Glory | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lazy Summer Day | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Veil | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mayapretty | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Bella | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | What Goes On Tour | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | City Fun | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yogurt | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Maxim Moment | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hope and Dignity | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | In Sky We Trust | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kolsch | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Walker’s Quist | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hay Sport | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Are You Happy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | First Premio | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fortuity | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vintage Print | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Ready | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Menace | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Super Sol | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Uncle Kick | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ocean Atlantique | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Beaver Hat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hop Kat | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Truculent | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Li’l Tootsie | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Grayce | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Farsighted | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Time | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Novel Squall | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gulf Coast | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Advanced Placement | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shaldag | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Hepo | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Incitatus | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bakwena | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Potus | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Treaty | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Finley | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Carmel Crush | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.