May 30, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Laura’s Angle | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’sskysthelimit | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cuzzywuzzy | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spy a Star | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Callie’s Candy | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tone My Betty | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Donzi | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Honiara | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Obligation | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beaucette’s Ekati | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dover Lights | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Master of War | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Banderas | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stud Puppy | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strikeitortapit | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Field Day | 0.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rolling Fork | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cees Get Degrees | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Girl Red | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Petit Verdot | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pletcher | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Seascape | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Music App | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Deemed Essential | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speed Zone | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nurturing | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forgot Password | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Penny | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Ro | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shady McGee (IRE) | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Knopfler | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hard Strike | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Copper King | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rye Humor | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crown the Prince | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Appraisal | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Davidic Line | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grey Streak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gagoots | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fieldstone | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Jay Vee Bee | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Soros | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shanghai’s Dream | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brother Aaron | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ash Flat | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pintxos | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marsac | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Digital Star | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nip N Tuck | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Guitty (FR) | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Color Me Pretty | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alnaseem (GB) | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curly Ruth | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brassy | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gamblin Train | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tizahra | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heaven Escape | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Teenage Kicks | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Resurrection Road | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Singita Dreams | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Figure It Out | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bye Bye Bertie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Spa City | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Almashriq | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Bodemeister Wind | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Motagally | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Something Natural | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Eskenforit | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Decision Maker | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Sermononthemount | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mobster Gun | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Transient (GB) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Queen Bourbon | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surrealist | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mummy Dearest | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soma | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coed | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Robin’s Fantasy | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flying Gem | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wendy’s Fine Wine | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Look Me Over | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Maybe Later | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mint Edition | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Forever Mesa | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Graceful Choice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Candy Anne | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.