May 29, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vodka N Water | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Twenty Four Mamba | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nineties Country | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Glacial | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Call Me Midnight | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eli | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bueno Bueno | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nope (IRE) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | We the Clouds | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kind Ways | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Osaka Girl | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mind Out | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sunset Kiss (GB) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oooh Barracuda | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mamba | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ivyetsu | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Casual Affair | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beau Liam | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Wild for Wycliff | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Absolute Chaos | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Do Right | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Mad | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Espionage | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Atoka | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rare Stripe | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Smooth | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lenny K | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Egyptian Springs | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Koolhaus | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wayakin | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Snow House | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bajan Rum | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Thunder | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smiley Sobotka | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostlighter | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cousin Larry | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regular Guy | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tycoon | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Audubon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Like the King | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Royal Prince | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palazzi | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cellist | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cave Hill | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Holy Vow | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Haddassah | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Blame S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Night Ops | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sprawl | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Dubai | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | South Bend | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mighty Heart | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Guest Suite | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Dust | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shawnee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Envoutante | 0.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Bigly | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Paris Lights | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Renoleta (ARG) | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Istan Council | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Goodbye Earl | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High Regard | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Microcap | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Loveaffair | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flown | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gam’s Mission | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Barista | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oyster Box | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Munnyfor Ro | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Postnup | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Line Dancing | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Saranya | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fulsome | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O Besos | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Helium | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Game Day Play | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sittin On Go | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Pounce | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Passage | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hello Hot Rod | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Aristides S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Tap It to Win | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bango | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Empire of Gold | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Alfred James | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Haunt | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Daaher | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mojo Man | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Edgemont Road | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tough Love | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Long Range Toddy | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Douglas Park Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Set Piece (GB) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parlor | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ramsey Solution | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Mystery | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gray’s Fable | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pioneer Spirit | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Eagle | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Split the Wickets | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Logical Myth | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.