May 28, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mister Oakley | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nashvegas | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bullion | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Released | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Magic Carpet | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sparkys Surprise | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kid’s Mischief | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | News Flash | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rock On Kitten | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Two Dot | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Feeling It | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ceeky | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Distorted Ransom | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Trade Secret | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dutch Clover | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bode by You | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sandstone | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eclipsed | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Behave Virginia | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sax | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Excession | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Briefcase Bully | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Thrill Ride | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Gigging | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Englander | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Roughin the City | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Big Nick | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La La Land (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tulfarris (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cavalry Charge | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ready to Answer | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Young Turk | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Conagher | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trebbiano | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Over It | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aquitania Arrival | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lucky Boss | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Little Red Rifle | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Climb and Maintain | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Promise Ofthe Nile | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gypsy Touch | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dame Cinco | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Played Hard | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miner’s Queen | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Grey C | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Town Beauty | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Apart of My Charm | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lovemesomeme | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | To Sing My Song | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Kasim | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lookin for Loki | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ultimate | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Big Union | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Tango Charlie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pretty Boy Elm | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cold as Hell | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Convection | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Factoire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Edge to Edge | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Macho Momma | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Woman | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Marion Francis | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Bling | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Fairchild | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11A | 8 | Rookery | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Tipsy Chix | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dana’s Beauty | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kind Ways | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hindsight | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Code Name Kate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Trumpet Lilly | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Malloy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Lisa’s Legacy | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Liam’s Nessy | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Honorably | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Sweet Carolena | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Bizzy Echo | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Tapit’s Ruby | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bout Time | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Touch of Class | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Stone Town | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Thundering Creed | 15.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Quick Munny | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pentagon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Six Feet Apart | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bombshell (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Let Them Eat Cake | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Beachside Bunny | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.