May 27, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Coal Shaft | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Making Progress | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ambitiously Placed | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Let’s Celebrate | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mini Dress | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sacre Bleu | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rock Star Parking | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Melting Snow | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Super Ready | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dance On Over | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Breonna | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | A Lot of Spunk | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chewy Chewy Good | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Moon Pie | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Solemn Oath | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ike Likes | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Louemma | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ancient Brown | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Affair | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kalalou | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt’s Honey | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gianna’s Gift | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Solar Kitten | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Abdan | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prime Time Player | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Road Bible | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Junesandra | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tall Timber | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Curlin Lane | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rupp N Ready | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Life | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Camellia Gal | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tempereya | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hat Tip | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Artistic Jewler | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Turnstone | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glamour Girl | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Into Victory | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shelley’s Gem | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | High Fashion | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hollywood Gina | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Black Kat Taps | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Answer In | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whiskey Double | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Banks Island | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dean Martini | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coltonator | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Digital | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Home Base | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbon War | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Borracho | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Full Authority | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Necker Island | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Super Sol | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | River Tiber | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Brew Crew | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ocelot | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grendel | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nine Reaper | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stribling | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lead | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | King’s Mischief | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | D’ Wicked | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unembellished | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Haig Point | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Magicalmysterytour | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.