May 23, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Stella Grace | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Expect the Boss | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Idol | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Chamita | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sure Fire | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bhoma | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bodacious Baby | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Butterbean | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hop Kat | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Arrival | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knight’s Cross | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Leader of Men | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Artie’s Rumor | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jumper | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Beautiful Wall | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peekacho | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tez | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | English Challenge | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ransack | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Olympic Romp | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Hold Tight | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mo Betta | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Big in the City | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lawlessness | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cumberland Avenue | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Clearly Mad | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I’m Money | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eastside Cool | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Extreme Force | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kadri | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Augusta Melody | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | A C Expressway | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mister K | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War Savvy | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gate Speed | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pirate Rick | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Megan’s Clara | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Naughty Rendezvous | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sparkle of Hope | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Town Avenger | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Royale | 10.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sassy Hannah | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dynamite Gift | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Confection | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Touch of Class | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Liam’s Nessy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bizzy Echo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Quick Munny | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Naughty Nellie | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Senor Jobim | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Final Jeopardy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Town Champ | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Best of Greeley | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Impressed | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charge the Line | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | I’m Corfu | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | The Tabulator | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Lady Rocket | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sterling Miss | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11A | 10 | Ready for Change | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Movie Moxy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shesomajestic | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Timely Tradition | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Windmill | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Regal Retort | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miss Mosaic | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tipsy Gal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Compelling Smile | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | She Can’t Sing | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jennemily | 50.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Alhambra | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Salvator Mundi | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hay Dakota | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silenced | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glynn County | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kentucky Ghost | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | In Love (BRZ) | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duke of Carthania | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Troubling Moon | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beau Luminarie | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Identifier | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ocean Atlantique | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Beaver Hat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Cryo | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Group Hug | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Alejandro | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Buffalo Shuffle | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Favorite Uncle | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Yearn for Victory | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tango Tango Tango | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Centrifuge | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bright Prospecter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tiz Life | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.