May 22, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Roger McQueen | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gunite | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lansdowne | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Detroit City | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Buckingham Prince | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Jr’s Gift | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Atta Boy Anthony | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Knocker Down | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lt. Finn | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Centerfold Angel | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rude Awaking | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Black Kettle | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ginny B | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | On Deck | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ginormous | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Awesome Gerry | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cazadero | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3A | 3 | He’s in Charge | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Privet Moon | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bob’s Edge | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ultimate Badger | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smokin’ Jay | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Suki | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Never Content (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lipstikliesnlovers | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Colonel Aby B | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love Enough | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flauto | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Red Bee | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Incessant | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Termsandconditions | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Forever Mesa | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sconsin | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frank’s Rockette | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Headland | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tipsy Gal | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rising Seas | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bayerness | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nightlife | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Duplicitous | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shi O’Shi | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Field Daisey | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vintage Ready | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hollywood Hoopla | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Girl Lexi | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Until Now | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kizzy B | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Closet Shopper | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seaside Retreat | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Tactics | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shoshoni Moon | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bahama Mischief | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Pharoah Lady | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Princess Lea | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wolfbane | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Waiting On William | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dream Maker | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Empty Tomb | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Dreaming | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Mesa | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Sixth Sense | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thirstforlife | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mailman Money | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Finnick the Fierce | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Code Runner | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Guest Suite | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Keertana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Delta’s Kingdom | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dalika (GER) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Temple City Terror | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pass the Plate | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Naomi Broadway (BRZ) | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Course | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cambeliza | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tweety Show | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sursum Corda | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ya Beauty (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Calibrate | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aloha West | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Derby Date | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Schmoozin | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trashtalkinyankee | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Incorrigible | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Casanova Kitten | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Exult | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Palace | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chantry Flats | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beachwalker | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Cut | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Catholic Guilt | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Sense | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fieldstone | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lastchanceatglory | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Katzarelli | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.