May 21, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Miss Dogwood | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Lucy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paulas Game | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Emmyrates | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Race Smart | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Too Much Kandy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Spy a Star | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Run Cookie Run | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Polyester Bride | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beyond a Million | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coinmaker | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Celeste | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Aye Aye Sir | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Clean Fun | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jack Van Berg | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Baquero Flies | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Mischief | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Piquin | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rivers of Lite | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Overbore | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tuskegee Cat | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seize the Treasure | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Artos (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tempo Madness | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Teo Mateo | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He Is Ready | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Never Say Know (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | A Lot to Like | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Code Clear | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Zip It Scotty | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Atta Boy Anthony | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lt. Finn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Creative Kid | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lulumaru | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Our Musical Moment | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Parking Ticket | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sacred Storm | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Her Giant | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ordained Kiss | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Dark Secret | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Smart Time | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bebop Shoes | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grove Daddy | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Verified | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Toobadsosad | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Citi Charm | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chasin Charlie | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Family Way | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Witez | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Lady | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flabbergasted | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Runway Dreamer | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stand Tall | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Good Times | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Curly Ruth | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Teenage Kicks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cat’s Pajamas | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Our Closure | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Resurrection Road | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Microcap | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Figure It Out | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Saracosa | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Empress Eleanor | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Edgee Angel | 20.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mr Sippi | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Happymac | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Shadow Matter | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Santa Cruiser | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Therideofalifetime | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oncoming Train | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | U. S. Steel | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Franz Josef | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wellman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Randello | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Courageously | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Deff (FR) | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hornswoggle | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alpha Predator | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Koufax | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harpoon Harry | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Command Central | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Authoritarian | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rosenquist | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rupp N Ready | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Destined for Honor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Borkan | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hanks | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Temple City Blvd | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runninforcover | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.