May 20, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cartel Queen | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gimmick | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Murgatroyd | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ding Ding | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | An Apple a Day | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gata Runz | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bali Kuta | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anotherworldinside | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Loaded | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | April’s No Fool | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s All Wolfe | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Treasure Lane | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pop a Choc | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Bird | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bali Dove (FR) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baja Fog | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shanghai Shamrock | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Along | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Townplace | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Hope | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Lily Mae | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Artos (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Storm Sequence | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lady Mila | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mrs. Barbara | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Eyeofthebeholder | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Baytown Lyla | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Start Class | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gold Money | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Donzi | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flags Up | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Poirier | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kant Beat the Rock | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bold Adventure | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Robo Man | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blake B. | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fredericktown | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Stage Ready | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uncapped | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Military Bearing | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sabador (FR) | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Convict Pike | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Optimistic Valor | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Botswana Taps | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Cabertoss | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | See the Pyramids | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Oakley | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Amani’s Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Freedom’s Flight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hold Tight | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Something Natural | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Twinkling Knight | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cantrell Hill | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pepper Pike | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blueridge Traveler | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shortlist | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hard to Be Good | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Laughing Fox | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mississippi | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | R Working Girl | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mischiefful | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Exotic West | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fabricate | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dealing Justice | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Founder’s Day | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lost Wish | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sa Foradada | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dark Honey | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Media Blitz | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | High Tide | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Win d’Oro | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Hellorhighwater | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Buy Me Candy | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Huge Bigly | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Rye Time | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | English Challenge | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Bullseye Bun | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | British Royalty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Take Charge d’Oro | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blanket of Roses | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lake Nakuru | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.