May 16, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bonnet | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fleeta Belle | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Kaza | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Isabelle’s Joy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Diva Banker | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sometimes Always | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ames Mister | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Boss Is a Pal | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Parrot Head | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Thunderstruck | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | High Tone | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bolu | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Harpoon Harry | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Boone’s Spirit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Niagara Skyline | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Beocca | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marvelousmoondance | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Of the Moment | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Buckets of Rain | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Western Pharoah | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | G for Gerry | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cove Blue | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Champagneonme | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Marshall Bill | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Hokie | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Seven | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Perhaps | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Front Street | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Poetic Honor | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Priddis | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liberty M D | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Prairie | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pregame | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Burrow | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Performing Arts | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rustler | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Defied | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | In Effect | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Reserve | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beduin Fighter | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cool Rags | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Find New Roads | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Project Thunder | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Loot the Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Centrifuge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Fortified | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Savoy | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tenth of Gold | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Island Boy | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | American Union | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Junesandra | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Majestic Summer | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Elvirus | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kolsch | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Bad Beat Brian | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Oceanic | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Souper Dormy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Mandate | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pico d’Oro | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Donnels Creek | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Payne | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gray Attempt | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Straight Shot | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Chaps | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Coltonator | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dean Martini | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Exulting | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I Will Stand | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Don’t Forget | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kadesh | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gigging | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wagon Boss | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Candy Carlos | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tres Equis | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Subdued | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laughing Fox | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Tariff War | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Modern Science (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Kabong | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Our Integrity | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | City Tavern | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emphasize | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Charger | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Purple Dream | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lavish McTavish | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holdtheflight | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Shaldag | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Nilsby | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tango Tango Tango | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dogwoods Cosby | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.