May 16, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Little Drama | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hagler | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Any Minute | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frosty Storm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Yukio | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Too Much Action | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Vici | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Outrageous Bet | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Kitten’s Cat | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Stroll | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Duncastle | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Honorable Hero | 50.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Sicarii | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Professor Snape | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Value Creation | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | St. Joe Louis (GB) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spotters Hill (IRE) | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Small Talk | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Landbiscuit | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Islandman | 50.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Colormepazzi | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ernie Banker | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ajhar | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Empire | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Passcode | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Writer’s Regret | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | American Gentleman | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Molino | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Digital Software | 1.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Johnnypump | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Welshman | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bail Out | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flight to Paradise | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Not Stormy | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rudy Rod | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Iron Giant | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Corey Scores | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bay Jewel | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jen’s Battle | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Translate | 1.40 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shesadirtydancer | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jasminesque | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rising Bella | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer At the Spa | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Canarsie Angel | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Itsakeyper | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sassy Melissa | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Easy to Bless | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miss Mi Mi | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Up Seventyfour | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Calibogue Sound | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pals Saratoga Gal | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lot of Honey | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Willow Grove | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Little Lulu | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Idalisa | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mia Calia | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lass | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wish for Magic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Big Package | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5A | 3 | Discretionary Marq | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Call Me Harry | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Shiraz | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valmont | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Steam Engine | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Honor Up | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Runaway Lute | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bears Mafia | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Listentoyourheart | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Time to Testify | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Red Mule | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catch That Party | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dang It | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Coragescontender | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Disciplanarian | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clamor | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | False Alarm | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Quintarelli | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True Palace | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scotto | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Knockout Punch | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.