May 14, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bode’s Maker | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Super Sol | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | P R Radio Star | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hold Me Black | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Buttered Noodles | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Highway | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Gold Endeavor | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Wah Kah | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Family Man | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sonic Burn | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Desoto’s War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Texas Playboy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Grand Design | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moon Swag | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Battle Bling | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sylvia Q | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lovely Ride | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Girl Red | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lake Lucerne | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sister Otoole | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hey Kitten | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Fact | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | We the Clouds | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Taranta (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Caira | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hat Tip | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Core Values | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Heaven Street | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tejano Twist | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Baby Quinn | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Call Ray | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz the Bomb | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Belleza Negra | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seize the Night | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zip It Scotty | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cachirulo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | American Law | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southern District | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bamalama | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Charge | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cronus | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Derby House | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Toffen | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hendy Woods | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Olympic Games (FR) | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Evil Lyn | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winter Sunset | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | How Ironic | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Crystal Glacier | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Russian Mafia | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiltingatwindmills | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Merveilleux | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Royal Wedding | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sister Hanan | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Rogue Too | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Petit Verdot | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yes Sir Robert | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Edge to Edge | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sir Giannis | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Nick | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | J C’s Champ | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Boy Elm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Valiant Vinny | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Take Charge Ro | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Peter’s Kitten | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Vividly (GB) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Say Hey (FR) | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Emily’s Oasis | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunset Kiss (GB) | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Pinkerton | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Margaret’s Joy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Applecross (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Loaded | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.