May 13, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ununderstandable | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Louemma | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shades of Truth | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Dare You | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ready N Waiting | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grimhilde | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thea Bee | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Tizplenty | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Burrow Down | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Topsy Turvy | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ontheonesandtwos | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pout | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Green Up | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Christmas | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Anna and Mia | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dunvegan Doll | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cornbread Hill | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hard Sting | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shanghai’s Dream | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Davidic Line | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Funny Bone | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Catipari | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nip N Tuck | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Walsh | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Win Worthy | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dolder Grand | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Eyes On Target | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nineeleventurbo | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sailor’s Return | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dance Some Mo | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cochise | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Incitatus | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jimmy Dan | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiger Shark | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Project Thunder | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Do Your Best | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Sacred Oath | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Frolic More | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Energizer | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Moonoverthebayou | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hombrazo | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fevola | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Major Attraction | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Spin Rate | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tamanrassett | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tiz Light the Way | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Double Tough Tiger | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Highest Mandate | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Language Barrier | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Day Trip | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She Love Me | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Magic Carpet | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crown the Prince | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hot Traffic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Belichick | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Basquiat | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | News Break | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Scarlet Fusion | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nathan Detroit | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blue Cat | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Falkirk | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Manitowish | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 12 | Money for Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Gigging | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Coach Bahe | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Turnagain Tide | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Roughin the City | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Frozay All Day | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Souper Capacity | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Protonico | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Life of Saturdays | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunset At Mallory | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zebra Cake | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stanchion | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perk the Gents Up | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Vida Yellow | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.