May 9, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hope and Dignity | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diamond State | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Skyro | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seventy Eight | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magicalmysterytour | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Union | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chicory Blue | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bucky | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pickford | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lauderdale | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Long On Luck | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ransack | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wherewegoin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Red Run | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trebbiano | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Woodline | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creative Bid | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | On Spot | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Suzie | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Warrior | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Liveryman | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | El Bandera | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Subiaco | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Our Closure | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Seeds of Time | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Spun Eazy | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Longleggedlaverne | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strollin the Bayou | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dutch Treat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mad Grace | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Shelley’s Gem | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Scabbard | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pit Boss | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | All West | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Motagally | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make Noise | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Almashriq | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gray Owl | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Raggedy Annie | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Recoded | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shasta Star | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Black Kettle | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Unmoored | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | D’ Rapper | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Charge the Line | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Lost in Limbo | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Madison’s Luna | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Chaps | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Donnels Creek | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Star of Kodiak | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Scoby | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Amazing Rocket | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Macron | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Six Pack | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pledgeofallegiance | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captain Hank | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Battle Hymn | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Coffee Break | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Surveillance | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Route One | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dominar | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Out Work’n | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mischievous Rogue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | In Sky We Trust | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Metolius | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Sprawl | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Moliere | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trident Hit | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Taishan | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super John | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lord Guinness | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fort Peck | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Uncle Kick | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hop Kat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Letmeno | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6 | Kinetic Sky | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Who Took the Money | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Ethical Judgement | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Hard Rye Guy | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Accredit | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mount Athos | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belafonte | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Notary | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Science (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Founder | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Big Blue | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bryce Canyon | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.