May 6, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Warm Sunny Breeze | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fugitive | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | New York One | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You Can Never Tell | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dr. Rusty Raymond | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cooke Brothers | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 10 | Tall Ship | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Left Blank | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deshackled | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Billingsgate | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Just Pick One | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Guising | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hair of the Dog | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 11 | Great Idea | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Determined Focus | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miracle Bobbie | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baltimore Bud | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | First Law | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Flash Is Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | The Big K | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mosler Safe | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | King Shawn | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Forloveofcountry | 0.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Back in Black | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fast Cash | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Galatians | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Good Man | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Indian | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Cry No More | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Tauber | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Mice and Men | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Zip the Lip | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Nautical Nature | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Sky’s Not Falling | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Tiz Golden | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Padrino’s Heart | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Joseph | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bear Force Won | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Daystrike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Railmaster | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Great Go Go | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Arrest Warrant | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mountain Lilly | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Blushable | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wicked Hot | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sonetta | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jungle Flower | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hope Has a Name | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Bosconovitch | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hummin’ the Funk | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Magic Election | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stir Crazy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hoss Kitten | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Parched Ghost | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Postino’s Secret | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Two Carat | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Olive’s Bumpa | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Life in Flash | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Virginia Beach | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gifted Heart | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Hydra | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Paisley Singing | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Money Fromheaven | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ellanation | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bunting | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Can the Queen | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mucha Mezquina | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Boogie With Me | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Epic Idea | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dashing Circles | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kidyounot | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lifespan | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Drive by Layover | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Souper Boom | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Francis X. | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.