Sports from the Basement

Pimlico Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 6, 2021

May 6, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Warm Sunny Breeze 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 5 Fugitive 1.00 3 6-1
2 2 New York One 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 You Can Never Tell 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Dr. Rusty Raymond 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cooke Brothers 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 10 Tall Ship 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Left Blank 10.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Deshackled 3.00 6.9 13-1
5 4 Billingsgate 6.00 7 13-1
6 5 Just Pick One 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 6 Guising 10.00 7.2 14-1
8 7 Hair of the Dog 10.00 7.3 14-1
16 11 Great Idea 12.00 7.6 14-1
12 9 Determined Focus 8.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Miracle Bobbie 15.00 10 19-1
4 4 Baltimore Bud 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 First Law 1.40 SCRATCH
10 10 Flash Is Back 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 The Big K 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mosler Safe 3.50 SCRATCH
11 8 King Shawn 30.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Forloveofcountry 0.80 1.7 3-1
3 3 Sir Back in Black 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Fast Cash 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Galatians 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 My Good Man 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Frosted Indian 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 2 Cry No More 1.60 2 4-1
8 4 Tauber 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 1 Mice and Men 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 5 Zip the Lip 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 3 Nautical Nature 6.00 5.8 11-1
13 7 Sky’s Not Falling 6.00 6.4 12-1
11 6 Tiz Golden 20.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Padrino’s Heart 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Joseph 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Bear Force Won 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Daystrike 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Railmaster 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Great Go Go 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Arrest Warrant 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 5 Mountain Lilly 12.00 2.6 5-1
11 10 Blushable 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Wicked Hot 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Sonetta 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 9 Jungle Flower 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Hope Has a Name 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 2 Miss Bosconovitch 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 3 Hummin’ the Funk 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Magic Election 30.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Stir Crazy 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hoss Kitten 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Parched Ghost 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Postino’s Secret 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Two Carat 5.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Olive’s Bumpa 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Life in Flash 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Shak’s Hidden Gem 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Virginia Beach 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 3 Gifted Heart 3.50 3.6 7-1
10 6 Hydra 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 5 Paisley Singing 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Money Fromheaven 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 2 Ellanation 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Bunting 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Can the Queen 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mucha Mezquina 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Boogie With Me 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Epic Idea 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dashing Circles 4.00 2.4 4-1
6 4 Kidyounot 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Lifespan 4.50 4.2 8-1
4 3 Drive by Layover 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Souper Boom 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Francis X. 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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