Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 6, 2021

May 6, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnight Patriot 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Can Imagine 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Jettin Out 2.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Good Clean Fun 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Baquero Flies 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Kolten’s Court 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Golden Spoke 1.80 1.9 4-1
5 5 Brother Aaron 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Pilot Prince 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Maximum Risk 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Devilinthebottle 10.00 5 9-1
8 8 Harrison’s Rose 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Strikeitortapit 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Puddle Jumper 15.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Searing Chase 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Loopallu 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Spycraft 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Thrill Ride 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Tango Charlie 4.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Joyful Heart 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Cold as Hell 12.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Stage Left 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Teller to Sing 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Out of Pocket 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Solemn Oath 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Wrinkles Your Nose 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Super Lucy 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Hot Dame 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Smarty Artie 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Keep Scrolling 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Gray Nay 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Well Done West 2.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Warrior in Chief 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Midnight Jostar 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Can’tbetemall 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Don’tshowweakness 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Two Princes 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Appraisal 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Bump 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cecile’s Chapter 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Thunder Buggy 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Gold for Kitten 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Lazy Summer Day 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Anotation 8.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Dramatizer 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Princess d’Oro 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Seaward 30.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Yogurt 30.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Hypernova 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Seascape 2.00 1.3 2-1
4 2 Legendary Gift 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 4 Pettigo Girl 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Gigi B. 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 3 Coupon 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 6 She’s a Deal 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 1 Let’s Celebrate 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Lovemesomeme 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Temper Mint Twist 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Attorney Tim 2.50 1.3 3-1
8 8 Absam 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Toma Todo 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Tulfarris (GB) 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Cibolian 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Beachwalker 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Hellorhighwater 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Tiz Rye Time 20.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 El Ahijado 20.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Crown the Prince 50.00 9 17-1
1 1 Oceans Map 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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