May 2, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lalic (FR) | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Lass | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trouville | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Capital Heat | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Win Often | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magical Gray | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roses and Candy | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sherlock | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rock N Rye | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big City Lights | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Barsini Red | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Takeittothebank | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Medina Man | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Agador Spartacus | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Gypsy Blu | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lavender (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Invincibella (GB) | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anonymously | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Grazen Honor | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen of the Track | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tip Top Gal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rookie Year | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Fun | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lucky Ryan Seven | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Mischief | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Centenario | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Guinessey | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Salah | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Broken Finger | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Team Merchants | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whatmakessammyrun | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mohawk King (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cherubic Factor | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Box | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Flyer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lady Aces | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Optimas | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginja | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Soulmate | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Con | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruby’s Orchid | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pushingupdaisies | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just Distorted | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Beguiled | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Laura’s Light | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Secretary | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocking Redhead | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Our Charm | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trickle In | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pawnee | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Beauty | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Warrior’s Moon | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Homehome | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scarlet Heat | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ole Silver | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Time for Ebby | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lava Lane | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Miss Millie | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blazingbellablu | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Queen of Pompeii | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bossy Soul | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starship Endeavor | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Class Code | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chao Mar | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.