May 2, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | The Last Zip | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Rhythm Section | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boru | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Gotcha | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ninja Dust | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | No Salt | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Respect for All | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kid Chocolate | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Not That Brady | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Turn of Events | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ny Traffic | 0.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Control Group | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Golani Brigade | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Microscope | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bourbon Bay | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bears Mafia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Deregulation (GB) | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King James | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ranger Fox | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Askin for a Baskin | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of Miami | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Drop Road | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Da Stamina Man | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Islandman | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr Annoying | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mandate | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Attentive | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soglio | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gearhead | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rejected Again | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nutzforboltz | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Soulmate | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gio d’Oro | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Castagno | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King of Spades | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flowers for Lisa | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | American Lincoln | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Runabout | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nemo’s Fortune | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devil Boy | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Hereby | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Big Bobby | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clear Humor | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | River Dog | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Myquest | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blitz to Win | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Crock of Gold | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Oliver’s Fortune | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Out of the Breech | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Prince of Joy | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Brazillionaire | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gimme Some Mo | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Future Victory | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Time to Testify | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doublepour | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tolaga Bay | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jacoba | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Swinging Sticks | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | True Palace | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Front Man | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Colton’s Command | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Finding Freedom | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Space Launch | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Public Sector (GB) | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Restored Order | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mira Mission | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Guillaume | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Safe Conduct | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sono Grato | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Arzak | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Good Culture | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Ruffian S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Our Super Freak | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lake Avenue | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Water White | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vault | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gibberish | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saguaro Row | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Orders | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Raising Sand | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quick Intro | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wilton | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Congrats for Glory | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Count Down | 1.20 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ballydooley (GB) | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Ruler | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loaded Joe | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Inappropriate | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Camouflaged Kisser | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Confectioner | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kentucky Knight | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ocean Deep | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Awesome Yet Again | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.