Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 1, 2021

May 1, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cool Bobby 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Sounion 5.00 4 8-1
9 9 Ekati’s Verve 6.00 4 8-1
3 1 Money for Mischief 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Soros 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Randello 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Ram 10.00 7 13-1
1 2 Striking a Pose 12.00 7.1 13-1
1A 5 Huge Bigly 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 1 Santos Dumont 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cadencia 2.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 The Ginger Queen (IRE) 4.50 5.1 10-1
10 10 Elle Est Forte 3.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Soma 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Texas Shuffle 15.00 7.1 14-1
3 3 Alydiva 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Cerulean 15.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Surrealist 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Flying Gem 15.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Robin’s Fantasy 12.00 8.2 16-1
13 13 Demodog 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Big Bee 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Semble Juste (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Colonel Aby B 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Pearl Girl 30.00 12.1 23-1
11 11 Anthropology 30.00 12.5 24-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cash Rocket 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Koolhaus 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 6 Alejandro 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 1 Extreme 4.50 1.8 3-1
9 8 Alexander Valley 10.00 2.9 5-1
8 7 Reward Night 6.00 3.2 6-1
10 9 Centrifuge 15.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Atoka 15.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Rare Stripe 30.00 6.1 12-1
6 5 Vail of Honor 50.00 9 17-1
1 1 Harvard 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Salvator Mundi 5.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Invader 6.00 1.9 4-1
7 6 Oak Hill 8.00 2.2 4-1
12 11 Gear Jockey 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Hay Dakota 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 First Premio 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Gun It 10.00 2.8 5-1
11 10 Vintage Print 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Street Ready 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Bizzee Channel 15.00 4 8-1
10 9 Holiday Stone 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Eddy Forever 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bodecream 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Super Sol 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Joyful Heart 50.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hop Kat 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Ghazaaly 2.50 1.5 3-1
11 10 Masqueparade 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Last Samurai 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Southern Passage 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Smiley Sobotka 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Regular Guy 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 5 Perfect Cut 12.00 6.5 12-1
3 2 Quantum Leap 12.00 6.7 13-1
10 9 Scales of Justice 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Drop Anchor 20.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Who Took the Money 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Got Stormy 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 3 Zofelle (IRE) 2.00 2 4-1
6 5 Blowout (GB) 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 2 New York Girl (IRE) 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 She’s Got You (GB) 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Abscond 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Jakarta 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gamine 0.20 1.2 2-1
2 2 Sconsin 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Bell’s the One 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Hibiscus Punch 12.00 4 8-1
6 6 Unique Factor 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Estilo Talentoso 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg&e And Ku

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Jackie’s Warrior 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 3 Defunded 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 5 Starrininmydreams 5.00 2 4-1
8 7 Dream Shake 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Prevalence 6.00 3.5 7-1
12 11 Joe Frazier 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Whiskey Double 12.00 4.2 8-1
11 10 Noble Reflection 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 9 Dreamer’s Disease 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Sittin On Go 20.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Three Two Zone 30.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Ultimate Badger 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Derby City Gaming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Du Jour 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Annex 3.50 1.9 4-1
13 13 Scarlett Sky 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Winfromwithin 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 Excellent Timing 10.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Lucky Law (IRE) 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Royal Prince 12.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 Palazzi 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Chess’s Dream 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Dyn O Mite 15.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Next 20.00 7 13-1
11 11 Hidden Enemy (IRE) 30.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Holy Vow 30.00 10.3 20-1
8 8 Barrister Tom 30.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Flagstaff 3.00 1.5 3-1
9 8 Whitmore 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Basin 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Mind Control 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Tap It to Win 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Shashashakemeup 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 11 Endorsed 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Phat Man 12.00 5.9 11-1
11 10 Hog Creek Hustle 15.00 8.4 16-1
8 7 Get the Prize 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 9 Bango 20.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Attachment Rate 10.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Lexitonian 20.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Colonel Liam 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Domestic Spending (GB) 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Smooth Like Strait 4.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Ride a Comet 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Ivar (BRZ) 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Digital Age (IRE) 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Count Again 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Cross Border 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Masteroffoxhounds 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Essential Quality 2.00 1.6 3-1
15 15 Rock Your World 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Known Agenda 6.00 2.9 5-1
17 16 Highly Motivated 10.00 4 7-1
9 9 Hot Rod Charlie 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Mandaloun 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Medina Spirit 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Dynamic One 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Midnight Bourbon 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 O Besos 20.00 6.6 13-1
20 19 Bourbonic 30.00 8.9 17-1
18 17 Super Stock 30.00 9.1 17-1
19 18 Soup and Sandwich 30.00 9.8 18-1
16 16 King Fury 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Brooklyn Strong 50.00 13.4 25-1
5 5 Sainthood 50.00 13.8 26-1
2 2 Like the King 50.00 13.9 26-1
4 4 Keepmeinmind 50.00 14 27-1
12 12 Helium 50.00 14.9 28-1
13 13 Hidden Stash 50.00 16.2 31-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Prime Factor 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Calibrate 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 One Fast Cat 5.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Tulane Tryst 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Wora 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 King’s Ovation 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Supremacy 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Colonel Bowman 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 12 A C Expressway 20.00 9.3 18-1
1A 11 Shadow Matter 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Triple Tap 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Santa Cruiser 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mr Sippi 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Happy Hepo 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mr Annoying 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 K C Rocket 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Bagboss 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Global Appeal 5.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Gun Lap 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Curlin Lane 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Fu Pegchu 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 King’s Mischief 20.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.